Track record
Ten lists 2015–2024, 200 picks, 76 players reached the Top 100 within 24 months — a 38% hit rate, roughly 3.4× the base rate for the same ranking band. Protocol details in the methodology.
| List | Picks | Reached Top 100 | Hit rate | Base rate | Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2015 | 20 | 6 | 30% | 11% | 2.7× |
| Jan 2016 | 20 | 7 | 35% | 10% | 3.5× |
| Jan 2017 | 20 | 6 | 30% | 11% | 2.7× |
| Jan 2018 | 20 | 8 | 40% | 12% | 3.3× |
| Jan 2019 | 20 | 7 | 35% | 11% | 3.2× |
| Jan 2020 | 20 | 7 | 35% | 12% | 2.9× |
| Jan 2021 | 20 | 8 | 40% | 10% | 4.0× |
| Jan 2022 | 20 | 8 | 40% | 11% | 3.6× |
| Jan 2023 | 20 | 9 | 45% | 11% | 4.1× |
| Jan 2024 | 20 | 10 | 50% | 12% | 4.2× |
| Total | 200 | 76 | 38% | 11.1% | 3.4× |
Ranking at publication → best ranking reached afterwards (selection).
Methodology — Targets are calibrated probabilities of reaching the ATP Top 100 within 12/24 months. Training data: tour, Challenger and ITF results plus weekly rankings since 1990. Backtests are strictly time-sliced; training always ends before the prediction window opens.
Preview build — players, figures, probabilities and prices shown are illustrative sample data.
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